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13 Aug 2014
USD/JPY: Potential for a bullish shift - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - The recent reversal off range lows in US Dollar / Japanese Yen has led JPMorgan FX Strategists to highlight the potential for a bullish shift within a broad consolidation context.
Key Quotes
"While the medium term range bias continues to develop, the recent reversal from critical support levels suggests an increased risk of additional upside. Again, the broad consolidation phase below the January high continues to reflect a corrective bias and part of an incomplete uptrend. However, the lack of upside follow- through has become a growing concern. Still, the recent reversal from the 101/100 support zone and medium term range lows suggests the door to a bullish resolution might finally be opening."
"In turn, the short term focus is on the 103.02/103.15 resistance area which includes the May high. Sustained breaks would suggest the upside bias is gaining traction while pointing to a closer test of the critical 104.13/35 zone. This area includes the April high and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the January peak."
"We sense these levels will define a retest, if not break of the January peak. Alternately, violations of the 100.60 area would confirm a bearish shift and closer test of the 100/99.95 area. This area includes the 61.8% retracement from the October low, before the critical 99.01/98.65 area. Note this area represents the November breakout area and should be a max if a continuation of the long term uptrend is in the card."
Key Quotes
"While the medium term range bias continues to develop, the recent reversal from critical support levels suggests an increased risk of additional upside. Again, the broad consolidation phase below the January high continues to reflect a corrective bias and part of an incomplete uptrend. However, the lack of upside follow- through has become a growing concern. Still, the recent reversal from the 101/100 support zone and medium term range lows suggests the door to a bullish resolution might finally be opening."
"In turn, the short term focus is on the 103.02/103.15 resistance area which includes the May high. Sustained breaks would suggest the upside bias is gaining traction while pointing to a closer test of the critical 104.13/35 zone. This area includes the April high and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the January peak."
"We sense these levels will define a retest, if not break of the January peak. Alternately, violations of the 100.60 area would confirm a bearish shift and closer test of the 100/99.95 area. This area includes the 61.8% retracement from the October low, before the critical 99.01/98.65 area. Note this area represents the November breakout area and should be a max if a continuation of the long term uptrend is in the card."